ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Reclaims $5,040 as NFP Risk Builds

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on Feb 10 (Tuesday), spot gold retreated in volatile trade, falling more than 1% to close near USD 5,013/oz. April U.S. gold futures, however, settled about 1% higher at USD 5,031/oz. Ahead of key labor and inflation data, traders trimmed positions, amplifying swings at elevated levels.

During Asian trading on Feb 11 (Wednesday), spot gold edged higher, hovering around USD 5,040/oz. Focus now shifts to the upcoming NFP report, with sentiment turning cautious into the data window.

Global Headlines

NFP and CPI Loom Large

January NFP will be released Wednesday, followed by January CPI on Friday. Markets expect payroll growth of around 70,000, with unemployment seen near 4.4%. December retail sales were flat, adding to concerns of slowing momentum. A downside surprise in jobs could reinforce growth concerns and reshape rate expectations.

March FED Hold Still Favored

Rate futures imply a 78.4% probability that the FED will keep rates unchanged in March, with a 21.6% chance of a 25bp cut. Expectations for April and June easing remain, but timing has shifted later as markets await clearer data confirmation.

Fed Officials Signal Patience

The Cleveland FED and Dallas FED presidents indicated they prefer to keep rates steady for longer unless the labor market shows clear signs of deterioration. Their remarks restrained near-term easing expectations.

Trump Warns of Escalation

President Trump said the U.S. could take tougher action if talks with Iran fail, including deploying additional carrier strike groups to the Middle East. He stressed that any future agreement must address both nuclear and missile programs.

PBOC Maintains Easing Bias

The Peoples Bank of China reiterated an “appropriately accommodative” stance in its Q4 2025 monetary policy report, signaling flexibility in using RRR cuts and rate adjustments to ensure ample liquidity and stable financing conditions.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Structurally, gold remains within a broader upward channel, with USD 4,650 serving as a key medium-term support. As long as prices hold above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with scope toward USD 5,400 and USD 5,600. A decisive break below USD 4,650 would expose downside risks toward USD 4,400 and USD 4,270.

RSI continues to reflect underlying strength, though volatility is likely to intensify ahead of major data releases. With macro data, geopolitical risks, and rate expectations interacting, near-term price action is more likely to reflect elevated consolidation and repricing. Investors should carefully manage position sizing and risk exposure.

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