Abstract：Join CNBC for live updates on European markets.
Vestas Wind down 5% as U.S. bill concerns weigh
Despite an upbeat start, the Stoxx 600 is trading just below the flatline in early afternoon deals. The worst performer on the index so far today has been Danish turbine-maker Vestas Wind, last down around 5.5%.
In a Monday note, analysts at Citi said the latest text of U.S. President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” looked “incrementally negative for wind.”
That's in part due to proposed changes to the rules surrounding tax credits for wind projects, which will become more restrictive, and a potential new tax on wind developments that have “material assistance” from foreign entities of concern.
While this would not technically apply to Vestas, “the complexity of supply chains could leave operators fearful” and “potentially prevent new orders being placed in the near term, even to western suppliers,” according to Citi.
However, they added that while the bill would provoke an initial negative reaction in Vestas shares, its scaling in offshore and European market growth story supported the stock longer-term.
Analysts at Sydbank meanwhile took a positive view on the stock in a Monday note, maintaining their “buy” recommendation.
“The Senate has submitted a bill with significant reductions in subsidies for onshore wind. This increases the risk of a significant and drastic decline in activity levels in the years after 2027, but may open up a very high order intake from the US in 2025 and 2026 for Vestas,” they wrote, according to a Google translation.
U.K.-U.S. trade deal comes into effect
The U.K.'s trade deal with the U.S. came into effect today, slashing tariffs on British-made autos and removing levies on Britain's aerospace sector.
But while U.K. steel has also been given a preferential tariff rate of 25%, compared with 50% for other trade partners, questions remain over when — and by how much — tariffs on U.K. metals can be reduced further, as promised.
The U.K. government said Monday that it is still working with The Trump administration to bring tariffs on Britain's core steel products down to 0%.
The regional Stoxx Automobiles and Parts index was last seen trading 1.3% lower, with French vehicle parts supplier Valeo leading losses on a 2.8% drop.
The Stoxx Aerospace and Defense index was 0.8% higher, meanwhile, with Britain's QinetiQ and Rolls-Royce both gaining around 1.5%.
Read more on the trade deal here.
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Fed's Bostic on inflation expectations and the neutral rate
Speaking to CNBC's “Squawk Box Europe” this morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized how hard it has become for the Federal Reserve to make inflation forecasts amid fast-changing U.S. policy and foreign relations — citing Canada's recent walk-back on its digital services tax as an example.
Bostic said he is therefore focusing on the inflation expectations of businesses and consumers and the actions they are taking, and where he sees risks to the outlook for taming price rises.
“The textbook story for economics is, if you do tariffs, it's a one time shift. It happens quickly,” Bostic said.
“What we are seeing today, though, is not just a one-time shift, it's actually something that's being stretched out over a much longer period of time. I think that runs the risk that people start to feel like inflation is always with them, this elevated level of inflation is always with them.”
“And that then runs the risk that there might be some some structural changes that businesses, and consumers for that matter, make in terms of how they respond and how they engage in the marketplace.”
Bostic, who is not currently a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, also told CNBC he doesn't think the data will support an interest rate move in July and that he see's the so-called “terminal rate” — neither stimulating nor restricting inflation and growth — “somewhere in the mid threes.” The current federal funds rate is 4.25%-4.5%.
Spain's Cuerpo says euro zone finance chief group must be 'more efficient'
Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo has called for a revamped Eurogroup — the informal body comprised of finance ministers for euro zone member states — days after announcing his candidacy for presidency of the group.
Cuerpo told CNBC the group needs to be “more agile, more efficient in decision making,” adding that he has a track record of bringing people to the table and striking deals. Eurogroup will vote on its next president on July 7.
Three European finance or economy ministers have put themselves forward for the role, with Irish incumbent Paschal Donohoe facing competition from Lithuania's Rimantas Šadžius and Cuerpo.
Euro area borrowing costs lower after German inflation data
Euro zone bond yields are extending declines this morning after regional German inflation data.
The June consumer price index in the key industrial state of North-Rhine Westphalia came in at 1.8% on the year down from 2% in May, and and was down 0.1% on the month. Preliminary national inflation data will be released this afternoon.
The 10-year German bond yield, the euro area's benchmark, was more than 2 basis points lower at 2.57%. The German 2-year yield was last down 2 basis points at 1.85%.
Fed's Bostic says inflation outlook won't be clear by July
The U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to have enough clarity on the trajectory of the U.S. economy to justify an interest rate cut in July, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC's “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“We're only going to have one more measure of inflation. We're going to have a lot that's unknown about how other policies are impacting the labor market. And without that kind of clarity, I don't think it's going to be my view that it'll be appropriate to move in any direction at this point,” Bostic said.
Tackling the issue of when the data might be sufficient to support a move, Bostic said the Fed would be closely monitoring how businesses and consumers respond to tariffs and other economic factors.
“I'm hearing more [businesses] say that they may not expect this whole thing to play out, to where they're at their final strategy, till even 2026, so this could be a much more extended period than I think many expect,” he told CNBC.
European stock markets open slightly higher
European stocks opened in the green on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.1% in early deals, building on last week's gains. Global sentiment appears broadly robust, with Asia-Pacific stocks turning mixed but U.S. futures remaining higher.
In Europe, sectors are mixed, with autos down 0.6% and banks slipping 0.25% as financial services gain 0.6%.
Beneficiaries of the U.K.-U.S. trade deal, which took effect this morning, are slightly higher, having already notched strong gains on the previous announcement. Those include engine-maker Rolls-Royce, up 0.6%, and German automaker BMW, up 0.26% — though Aston Martin shares are 0.1% lower. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 is up 0.1%.
Sterling higher, UK stocks to open in green as U.S. trade deal comes into effect
The British pound, which last week hit an almost four-year high against the U.S. dollar, is up 0.1% against the greenback at 7:39 a.m. in London to around $1.373. Futures data meanwhile points to higher opens for both the FTSE 100 and the broader FTSE 250.
Monday marks the start of the trade deal between the U.K. and U.S. which was brokered last month. Key details include British car export tariffs being reduced from 27.5% to 10%, along with duties on aerospace goods such as engines and aircraft parts being slashed to zero.
The U.K. has still been left with a baseline 10% tariff and an outlined agreement that will put zero tariffs on core steel products has not been finalized.
The U.K.'s statistics agency meanwhile on Monday confirmed that economic growth for the first quarter of 2025 was 0.7%, in line with its previous estimate.
Here are the opening calls
Welcome to CNBC's live blog covering all the action in European financial markets on Monday, and the latest regional and global business news, data and earnings.
Futures data from IG suggests a positive start for European markets, with London's FTSE looking set to open unchanged at 8,794, Germany's DAX up 0.3% at 24,104, France's CAC 40 up 0.3% at 7,709 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.2% at 39,911.
The positive start for Europe comes after similar sentiment in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, as investors parsed details on trade negotiations and data points, including Japan's industrial output figures for May and China's manufacturing activity for June.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures rose early Monday as investors look to cap an exuberant month for stocks, despite uncertainty over global trade negotiations.
What to watch for today
Market watchers in Europe will be looking at the latest inflation data out of Italy and Germany on Monday, as well as German retail sales, for signs of inflationary pressures and a hit to consumer confidence.
Traders will also be digesting data out of China earlier that showed manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, despite Beijing's stimulus efforts helping to stabilize certain aspects of the industrial sector.
