ETO Markets Buzz | Inflation Risks Surge as Oil Climbs Toward $115 Amid Escalating Conflict

Global Market Overview | April 2026

According to ETO Markets analysis, global markets are entering a more fragile phase as geopolitical tensions intensify and macroeconomic pressures begin to converge.

On day 40 of the conflict involving the United States and Iran, markets are increasingly focused on the potential escalation of military actions targeting critical infrastructure such as power plants and transport networks. This shift signals a transition from strategic conflict toward economic disruption, raising the stakes for global markets.

At the same time, oil prices continue to surge, with WTI approaching USD 115 despite ongoing diplomatic discussions. This divergence highlights market scepticism around any near-term resolution and reflects persistent concerns over supply disruptions.

Oil Surge Signals Structural Supply Concerns

Energy markets remain the clearest transmission channel of geopolitical risk. The continued rally in oil prices reflects not only immediate supply fears but also structural concerns around key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Even in the presence of negotiations, markets are pricing in prolonged disruption risk, including shipping constraints, rising insurance costs, and logistical bottlenecks. These factors effectively tighten supply conditions beyond actual production losses.

As a result, oil is no longer reacting solely to headlines but is increasingly driven by structural risk premiums embedded in the market.

Inflation Set for Re-Acceleration

One of the most critical developments highlighted by ETO Markets is the expected surge in US inflation data, which will provide the first clear indication of how war-driven energy costs are feeding into the broader economy. Forecasts suggest a sharp increase in inflation, with month-on-month CPI expected to rise to 0.9% from 0.3%, and annual inflation projected at 3.3%, up from 2.4%. This acceleration reflects the initial pass-through of higher fuel, transportation, and logistics costs into consumer prices.

The key risk for markets is whether inflation remains contained within energy-related components or begins to spread across core sectors such as services and goods. A broader inflation pickup would significantly complicate the policy outlook.

Federal Reserve Faces Policy Dilemma

The evolving inflation environment presents a complex challenge for the Federal Reserve. On one hand, rising inflation—particularly if it becomes broad-based—would require maintaining a restrictive monetary stance for longer. On the other hand, the inflation shock is largely supply-driven and coincides with signs of weakening growth, creating a potential stagflation scenario.

This places the Federal Reserve in a constrained position, where policy flexibility is reduced and decisions become increasingly data-dependent.

Growth Signals Begin to Weaken

Beyond inflation, economic data is beginning to show signs of softening momentum. The ISM Services PMI has declined, while global indicators point to a slowdown in activity across major economies.

In Australia, conditions are deteriorating more clearly. The S&P Global Composite PMI has fallen into contraction territory at 46.6, marking the first contraction in 18 months. At the same time, 10-year government bond yields remain near multi-decade highs, tightening financial conditions and increasing pressure on households and businesses.

This combination of slowing growth and rising borrowing costs reinforces concerns around a more challenging macroeconomic environment.

Market Implications: Volatility to Persist

From a market perspective, the current environment is characterised by three dominant forces:

• Rising geopolitical risk

• Re-accelerating inflation

• Slowing economic growth

Together, these factors are creating a highly volatile and uncertain backdrop for global financial markets.

Equity markets are likely to remain under pressure, particularly if inflation surprises to the upside and reinforces a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. At the same time, safe-haven assets such as gold may continue to find support amid uncertainty and inflation risk.

ETO Markets Outlook

Looking ahead, ETO Markets highlights that the next phase of market direction will be heavily influenced by incoming inflation data and geopolitical developments.

If inflation continues to accelerate and conflict risks remain elevated, markets are likely to remain volatile, with downside risks for growth assets and continued support for commodities.

In this environment, monitoring energy markets, inflation dynamics, and central bank responses will be critical in navigating global financial conditions.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for general reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial products.

ETO Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses incurred from reliance on such content.