ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Nears 5000 as Two-Week Decline Extends

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on March 13 (Friday) gold prices edged lower. Spot gold fell 0.5% to close at USD 5,052.15/oz. Influenced by the U.S. dollar and shifting rate expectations, gold has now declined for a second consecutive week, with a cumulative drop of nearly 3% over the past week.

During Asian trading on March 16 (Monday), spot gold fluctuated near the USD 5,000 level, with bulls and bears continuing to battle for short-term direction.

Global Headlines

Trump Says Talks Ongoing Over Strait of Hormuz

Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated over the weekend as U.S. and Israeli forces continued strikes on Iranian targets while Iran reported retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases and Israeli assets. Trump stated that Washington is discussing the Strait of Hormuz situation with seven countries and confirmed that dialogue with Iran remains ongoing, although no agreement has yet been reached.

Iran Outlines Conditions to End the War

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that ending the current war would require two conditions: guarantees that similar conflicts will not occur again and compensation to Iran for war damages. Iran also indicated willingness to discuss safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz with certain countries.

Iran Military Says U.S. Withdrawal Required for Peace

Mohsen Rezaei, a senior commander of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran would consider ending the conflict only if two conditions are met: full compensation for war damages and the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from the Persian Gulf.

Powell–Trump Tensions Intensify

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, through legal representatives, stated that if the investigation related to alleged budget overspending continues, he may remain on the Federal Reserve Board until 2028 after his chairmanship ends, potentially complicating the succession process.

Institutional Selling in U.S. Equities Hits Decade High

Goldman Sachs data shows that institutional investors significantly reduced risk exposure to U.S. equities last week. Net selling of S&P 500 futures reached USD 36.2 billion, the largest in more than a decade, while ETF short positions climbed to a three-year high.

Fed Hold Probability Rises to 99.2%

CME FedWatch data indicates markets assign a 99.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week. Expectations for rate cuts continue to move further out as investors remain cautious about the policy outlook.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

From a technical perspective, USD 5,055 stands as the key near-term resistance. If prices remain below this level, downside risks persist with potential targets at USD 4,965 and USD 4,945. A break above USD 5,055 could allow a rebound toward USD 5,090 and USD 5,125.

Gold continues to trade under the combined influence of U.S. dollar movements, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments. Investors should carefully assess trading rhythm and risk exposure.

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