Inflation fears boost rate hike bets; US dollar up 5th day, gold down, oil surges.

Last Friday, there was a global wave of bond selling. Due to the comprehensive surge in inflation data in the United States, multiple key indicators have reached multi-year highs. Traders have largely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year, while bets on a rate hike within the year have increased. Boosted by the tightening interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve, the US dollar index rose for four consecutive days, breaking through the key psychological threshold of 99 and ultimately closing up 0.42% at 99.28, breaking the high since early April; The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield surged nearly 14 basis points to 4.596%, the highest level since February 2025 and the largest daily increase in over a year; The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds, which are particularly sensitive to interest rate policies, rose nearly 9 basis points to 4.075%. On Monday morning (May 18th Beijing time) in the Asian market, spot gold traded around $4542 per ounce, with the possibility of testing the $4500 per ounce mark during the day. The strengthening of the US dollar dragged down gold prices, while the US Israel military action against Iran intensified inflation concerns, further strengthening market expectations of interest rate hikes. With the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing concerns about global inventory shrinkage, international oil prices have significantly risen. WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 3.12% at $105.22 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 2.36% at $109.15 per barrel.