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Naira Rallies in Official Window, Yet Looming Oil Supply Shock Threatens FX Stability
Abstract:The Nigerian Naira closed January stronger against the dollar in the official market, narrowing the gap with parallel rates, but a scheduled 225,000 bpd reduction in crude exports due to Shell's Bonga field maintenance raises concerns over future FX liquidity.

The Nigerian Naira (NGN) concluded January on a resilient note within the official foreign exchange market, closing at N1,391 to the dollar. This represents a marked appreciation from the months opening rate of N1,431/$, signaling a potential stabilization in the volatile currency market.
Crude Export Disruption
Despite the positive FX momentum, the outlook for Nigeria's foreign reserve accretion faces a significant headwind. Shell has confirmed the shutdown of its Bonga FPSO vessel for scheduled turnaround maintenance.
- Official Closing Rate: N1,391
- Export Loss: 225,000 barrels per day (bpd)
- Effective Date: February 2026
Technicals
- The NGN shows bullish technicals at N1,391/$ as policy adjustments absorb excess liquidity.
- Reduced crude receipts may hinder the Fed-style intervention needed by the Central Bank to clear FX backlogs.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
