Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Will Ceasefire Keep Gold Supported?

22/04/2026

Key Highlights

• U.S. President Donald Trump once again shifted his policy stance

• Safe-haven sentiment eased in the short term

• Downside risk for precious metals appears limited

Market Review

Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Indefinitely Until “Discussions Conclude”

President Trump announced on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran will be extended until negotiations between the United States and Iran are formally concluded, despite previously stating that the deadline would not be extended.

The President indicated that the decision was made following a request from Pakistan and attributed delays in negotiations to divisions within Irans government. He stated that additional time is being granted to allow Iranian officials to present a unified proposal.

Trump also confirmed that U.S. forces will continue maintaining blockades and remain fully prepared while diplomatic efforts proceed. As of now, Iran has not issued an official public response to the extension.

The two-week ceasefire was initially scheduled to expire this week, and earlier remarks suggested that military operations could resume once the deadline passed. However, the latest move signals a shift toward continued diplomatic engagement while maintaining military readiness.

Previous negotiations between U.S. and Iranian representatives in Islamabad reached a stalemate, particularly regarding Irans nuclear program. Both sides have continued to accuse each other of violating ceasefire conditions, including disruptions to shipping routes and port restrictions.

Overall, the extension of the ceasefire has temporarily reduced geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in short-term safe-haven demand, although market uncertainty remains elevated.

Affected Financial Instruments:

USD | Gold | S&P 500

U.S. Retail Data Shows Renewed Strength

U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, slightly revised upward from the previous reading, indicating solid momentum as the spring shopping season began. Gasoline station revenues surged 15.5%, marking the largest increase since 1992, largely reflecting higher energy prices during the Iran conflict.

Despite ongoing cost pressures and global uncertainty, core retail indicators remained resilient. The control group used in GDP calculations increased 0.7%, with previous months revised higher, suggesting that consumer spending maintained strong momentum in the first quarter.

Online sales continued to be a key growth driver, rising 1.0% for the third consecutive month, highlighting the sustained shift toward convenience-driven and digital spending. Meanwhile, discretionary spending also showed renewed strength, with sectors such as sporting goods, hobbies, and bookstores performing well. Restaurant revenues increased for the second consecutive month, confirming that consumers continue to prioritize experiences despite selective budget adjustments.

Overall, U.S. consumers remain resilient, with household demand continuing to provide a stable foundation for economic growth.

Affected Financial Instruments:

USD | Gold | S&P 500

Summary

Although the U.S. President previously stated that the ceasefire would not be extended—temporarily boosting safe-haven demand, strengthening the U.S. dollar, and pressuring precious metals—the latest announcement to extend the ceasefire and continue negotiations has led to a gradual cooling of risk-off sentiment.

As a result, downside pressure on gold has become limited in the near term.

Todays Key Event

UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Markets will closely monitor the UK inflation data today. Historical trends suggest the UK economy has been gradually stabilizing; however, due to ongoing geopolitical risks related to the Iran situation, inflation is expected to remain elevated.

Impacted Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Equity Indices

Trading Strategy

Bias: Long (Precious Metals)

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure overall market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are driven by fear or greed.

The latest reading stands at 70 (Risk-On), compared with the previous level of 36, indicating that risk appetite has strengthened while safe-haven demand continues to decline.

As markets gradually digest developments related to the Iran conflict, risk sentiment has improved. This shift has contributed to a downward trend in the U.S. Dollar Index, while risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies have shown upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire with Iran, safe-haven demand declined significantly, leading to a pullback in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and indirectly supporting gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold has successfully broken above the 4844 resistance level, signaling continued bullish momentum in the short term.

Strategy: Maintain a bullish bias on pullbacks, with key support to monitor around the 4700 level.