Ceasefire Outlook Between the U.S. and Iran Dims, Nasdaq’s 13-Day Winning Streak Ends

Market Overview

On April 20, U.S. equities saw a notable cooling in sentiment, with all three major indices closing modestly lower. The Nasdaq officially snapped its remarkable 13-session winning streak.

As the temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire approaches its expiration, uncertainty around renewed negotiations remains elevated. Former President Donald Trump adopted a firm stance, signaling that an extension of the ceasefire is “highly unlikely” if no agreement is reached, prompting renewed risk-off flows out of equities.

Despite broader market weakness, the semiconductor sector continued to demonstrate resilience, extending its rally to a 14-day winning streak and significantly outperforming the broader indices.

■ Technology & Semiconductors Diverge

The semiconductor index continued to push toward record highs.

Marvell Technology surged nearly 6% following reports of a potential collaboration with Google on AI chip development.

Meanwhile, Broadcom edged lower by approximately 2%.

Software and airline stocks weakened broadly amid concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Cruise operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell nearly 3.5%, while American Airlines declined more than 4%.

Drone manufacturer Aevex Aerospace continued to attract strong investor interest on its second trading day, surging over 20% and emerging as a focal point in the defense-tech space.

■ Precious Metals & Commodities

Crude oil staged a sharp rebound as supply concerns intensified.

Both WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil surged more than 6% intraday, underscoring escalating tensions surrounding ceasefire negotiations.

Precious metals faced heavy selling pressure.

Gold and Silver dropped sharply during the session before trimming losses, reflecting pronounced profit-taking activity.

■ Fixed Income & Cryptocurrencies

Bond markets remained fragile, with U.S. Treasury yields trending higher amid volatility as investors reassess rate-cut expectations in light of geopolitical developments.

Cryptocurrencies showed strong resilience.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $76,000 level intraday, suggesting that capital continues to view digital assets as a hedge amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Developments to Watch● China Releases Latest LPR Fixing

China announced its April Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on April 20, with both tenors unchanged.

According to the National Interbank Funding Center, authorized by the People's Bank of China, the rates are as follows:

• 1-year LPR: 3.0%

• 5-year LPR: 3.5%

These rates will remain effective until the next LPR update.

● Iran Reaffirms Core Negotiation Stances

Iranian media reported that Tehrans decision not to participate in negotiations remains unchanged. Ongoing U.S. maritime blockades are viewed as a key obstacle. Iran also warned that reports from U.S. media regarding negotiations may be misleading and indicated readiness for potential military escalation.

However, U.S. media suggested that Iranian representatives are preparing for potential talks in Islamabad as early as Tuesday. Reports indicate that if U.S. Vice President JD Vance attends, Irans parliamentary speaker may also participate.

Iran‘s Foreign Minister stated that next steps will be determined following a comprehensive assessment. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader reiterated three core positions, including demands related to war reparations. The Iranian Parliament Speaker emphasized that negotiations conducted under threats would not be accepted.

Notably, reports suggest that Vance may postpone the talks to Tuesday, contradicting earlier remarks by Trump.

Key Data to Watch (GMT+8)

• 20:30 (ET) – U.S. March Retail Sales MoM

• 22:00 (ET) – U.S. February Business Inventories MoM

• 22:00 (ET) – U.S. March Pending Home Sales Index MoM