Gold Rebounds from Lows While Oil Hits Four-Year High

Market Overview

During yesterday‘s session and into today’s Asian trading hours, tensions in the Middle East escalated once again. After Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal, Donald Trump issued a final ultimatum, warning that military action could be taken by the evening of the 7th if no agreement is reached. This initially triggered a sharp intraday sell-off in U.S. equities.

However, sentiment quickly stabilized after Trump stated in a press briefing that Iran still shows “willingness to negotiate,” with communication between both sides remaining active. As a result, risk appetite recovered, and all three major U.S. equity indices closed higher, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching their highest levels in over two weeks.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to fuel the energy market, with WTI crude oil closing at its highest level in nearly four years.

■ Technology & Semiconductor Stocks

The semiconductor sector outperformed the broader market for a fourth consecutive session. SanDisk and Micron Technology both gained more than 3%, while AppLovin surged nearly 7%, standing out among tech names.

In contrast, concerns surrounding the private credit sector remain unresolved. Blue Owl Capital, at the center of the ongoing turmoil, fell to an all-time low, reflecting heightened market anxiety over liquidity risks within the space.

■ Precious Metals & Cryptocurrencies

Risk assets showed a clear divergence, characterized by “Bitcoin strength versus gold weakness.”

Bitcoin surged above the $70,000 level intraday, rising more than 4% from its daily low and outperforming equities.

Spot gold briefly declined over 1% before finding support and rebounding alongside oil prices. Silver remained range-bound at elevated levels, as capital rotated rapidly between geopolitical inflation hedges and interest rate expectations.

■ Energy & Fixed Income

Crude oil initially dropped more than 2% intraday before staging a sharp reversal, marking a second consecutive daily gain and setting a new multi-year high.

In the bond market, medium- to long-term U.S. Treasuries rebounded, with yields edging slightly lower. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated in response to Trumps remarks, briefly turning higher intraday, underscoring its sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

Key Themes Ahead● U.S. ISM Services PMI Weakens in March

The U.S. ISM Services PMI declined to 54 in March, falling short of expectations and signaling a noticeable slowdown in growth momentum.

The report revealed significant internal divergence:

• New orders remained strong, indicating continued demand resilience

• Inflation pressures intensified, with the Prices Paid Index surging to its highest level since October 2022 and marking one of the largest increases in nearly 14 years

• Employment unexpectedly contracted, becoming the primary drag on the index

Ongoing Middle East tensions have driven up energy costs and disrupted supply chains, further exacerbating inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty.

● Strait of Hormuz Shipping Data Raises Concerns

Is the Strait of Hormuz truly open？

Analysts from Citrini conducted on-the-ground vessel tracking and revealed that public AIS (Automatic Identification System) data may be underreporting nearly 50% of actual traffic.

Rather than a binary “open or closed” status, the strait appears to be operating under a dynamic enforcement regime, where conditions shift rapidly.

This implies that global energy and shipping supply chains may face more frequent and less predictable disruptions. For market participants, relying on a single data source is increasingly insufficient—multi-source verification is becoming a critical edge in trading decision-making.

Key Data to Watch

22:30 (GMT+8)

• U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM (February)

• New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (March)