Trump ceasefire → USD 99.96 ↓0.59%; Gold $4650+, Oil ↑52%/mo.

On Tuesday, Trump once again issued a ceasefire signal, willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. At the same time, there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to negotiating an end to the war.

The US dollar index fell from its high and ultimately closed down 0.6% at 99.88, hitting a new low in over a week; The yield of US treasury bond bonds fell across the board. The benchmark 10-year US bond yield closed at 4.3230%, while the two-year US bond yield sensitive to the policy interest rate of the Federal Reserve fell slightly to 3.8030%.

Spot gold surged 3.5% to $4667 on Tuesday, but still recorded a huge decline of 11.8% in March, marking the worst monthly performance since October 2008. The expected easing of the situation in the Middle East has boosted short-term rebound, but inflation concerns caused by high oil prices and expectations of interest rate hikes continue to suppress gold prices. The weak employment data has led to a rebound in expectations of interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5500 by the end of 2026.

The short-term volatility of gold and the possibility of a possible downgrade of the Middle East conflict in the medium to long term have caused a sharp turn in the oil market. After the Iranian president expressed his willingness to end the war with guarantees, international oil prices plummeted upon hearing the news. WTI crude oil closed down 3.31% at $101.81 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed down 5.46% at $102.09 per barrel.