Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Fed Holds Rates, Gold Slips Below the 5,000 Mark

Global financial markets saw sharp volatility on 19 March 2026 following the latest Federal Reserve decision. Spot gold came under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, falling nearly 4% during the session and briefly touching a monthly low of USD 4,809 before recovering slightly to trade around USD 4,831.

Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, its policy statement came across more hawkish than markets had anticipated. Officials stressed that inflation remains stubborn and signalled there may only be room for one rate cut this year.

Meanwhile, the energy market moved in the opposite direction. US crude oil surged nearly 3% to USD 98.30 per barrel as geopolitical tensions sharply increased concerns over potential supply disruptions, quickly rebuilding the markets risk premium.

Markets are now caught between tighter monetary policy and rising geopolitical uncertainty. With expectations for a June rate cut fading significantly, gold may remain under short-term pressure, with the USD 4,800 level now seen as a key support zone.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Overview

1. US Equity Market

Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,225.15, down 766.45 points or 1.63%. The pullback toward the 46,000 support zone reflects continued repricing in heavyweight stocks under a prolonged high-rate environment.

• S&P 500 ended at 6,620.95, up 0.09%. Despite broader market weakness, the index showed resilience around the 6,600 area.

• Nasdaq-100 finished at 24,616.00, down 0.14%, with technology stocks facing increased volatility under a hawkish Fed outlook.

Stock in Focus

• Tesla, Inc. closed at USD 392.78, down 1.63%. Concerns over tighter liquidity and softer consumer demand pushed the stock lower, with price action testing resistance near the USD 400 psychological level.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

• U.S. Dollar Index stood at 100.128. While the Fed maintained rates, much of the hawkish tone had already been priced in by the market.

• EUR/USD traded at 1.14738, up 0.19%. The euro found technical buying support above 1.14 as dollar momentum eased, though weak European fundamentals continue to cap upside potential.

• USD/JPY traded at 159.791, down 0.01%. The yen remains highly volatile below the 160 level, with traders closely watching potential follow-up action from Bank of Japan.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

• Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded around USD 4,841.86 per ounce, up 0.49%. Safe-haven demand returned despite high interest rates, with inflation hedging and geopolitical premium continuing to dominate price action.

• Spot silver (XAG/USD) traded at USD 76.40 per ounce, up 1.34%. Silver showed stronger intraday momentum than gold, breaking through several technical resistance levels.

Commodities

• Crude oil (XTI/USD) traded at USD 99.03 per barrel, down 0.55%. Oil faced resistance near the USD 100 mark as markets balanced geopolitical supply risks against slowing global demand.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

• Bitcoin traded at USD 71,026, down 0.33%. Bitcoin remained range-bound above USD 70,000, with crypto increasingly showing characteristics of a digital safe-haven asset.

• Ethereum traded at USD 2,194.3, down 0.40%. Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin slightly, reflecting softer on-chain activity amid tighter liquidity expectations.

5. Key Events to Watch Today

• UK Claimant Count Change

• UK Average Earnings Index (3M/Y)

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate

• US Initial Jobless Claims

• Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Index

• European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate

• US New Home Sales