Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Oil Surges Above 100 as Gold Holds at Elevated Levels

On March 13, 2026, global financial markets are experiencing intense volatility triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. International crude oil prices surged more than 9 percent in a single day on Thursday, with Brent crude climbing back to 100.46 dollars, while U.S. crude reached its highest level in nearly four years.

A production disruption of around 10 million barrels per day is now being viewed as one of the most severe supply shocks in history. Even record levels of strategic petroleum reserves may not be enough to fully offset the supply gap.

Meanwhile, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields has weakened golds appeal as a holding asset. As a result, spot gold faced heavy selling pressure at elevated levels on Thursday, dropping sharply by 1.88 percent to around 5,079.25 dollars.

Market Overview and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 46,677.85 Market performance remains relatively stable, though the macro environment is shifting toward higher inflation expectations, leading to capital lingering in value stocks.

• S&P 500 (SP500): 6,702.50 Investors are reassessing how rising borrowing costs may erode corporate earnings, prompting a shift toward defensive strategies.

• Nasdaq-100 (NQ1): 24,647.00 High-valuation technology stocks remain highly sensitive to interest rate changes. With rising inflation premiums, the sector faces short-term technical correction pressure.

Stock Spotlight

• Tesla (TSLA): 395.01 dollars The stock is consolidating below the key 400-dollar psychological level but continues to show relative resilience against broader risk sentiment.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 99.625 The dollar has strengthened recently, supported by safe-haven inflows and market pricing of a “higher for longer” interest-rate path from the Federal Reserve.

• EUR/USD: 1.15239 The pair remains weak around 1.15, pressured by the dual impact of the European energy crisis and recession risks in the eurozone.

• USD/JPY: 159.124 The yen is approaching the 160 level, as the wide interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan continues to weigh on the Japanese currency. In an extreme inflation environment, the dollar has even surpassed the yens traditional safe-haven appeal.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

• Spot Gold (XAUUSD): around 5,121.17 dollars per ounce After hitting a historic extreme high, gold is now trading with heightened volatility. The strong rebound in the U.S. dollar has made bullish positions cautious above 5,120 dollars.

• Spot Silver (XAGUSD): 85.27 dollars per ounce Silver is showing greater volatility than gold. Amid the tug-of-war between industrial demand and inflation-hedging flows, prices have pulled back to just above the 85-dollar level.

Commodities

• Crude Oil (XTIUSD): 95.32 dollars per barrel Oil prices have surged recently due to threats of disruptions in key Middle Eastern shipping routes and production cuts from major oil-producing nations. The rally is beginning to create systemic pressure on global inflation expectations.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

• Bitcoin (BTCUSD): 71,500 dollars Bitcoin has retraced to the 71,500 support area. Risk-off flows are currently shifting toward physical assets, leading to short-term liquidity outflows from digital assets.

• Ethereum (ETHUSD): 2,120.6 dollars Ethereum has underperformed compared with major traditional financial assets.

5. Todays Focus

• UK January GDP (MoM)

• Canada February Employment Change

• Canada February Unemployment Rate

• U.S. January Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

• U.S. Q4 Real GDP Annualized Revision

• U.S. February Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

• U.S. February Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

• U.S. Q4 GDP Price Index Revision

• U.S. January JOLTs Job Openings