DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 13, 2026

CPI in Focus: The Final Market Reality CheckDollar, Gold & Nasdaq100 Outlook

The global market's "rate cut party" has been officially put on ice. Following the blockbuster 130k NFP surprise earlier this week, the narrative has shifted from recession fears to a resurgence of inflation anxiety.

Todays January CPI report is the final piece of the puzzle: if it reveals sticky inflation, the "Higher for Longer" regime will be cemented for the foreseeable future.

CPI Preview: The Post-NFP Powerhouse

After the U.S. labor market proved unexpectedly robust, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) now carries the weight of the Fed's next move.

Market expectations for an April rate cut have effectively dropped to zero, with full attention now on whether inflation is truly on a sustainable path to 2% to keep the possibility of a June cut alive.

· Wage-Price Spiral: Apart from strong labor data, the jump in average hourly earnings has put the risk of a wage-price spiral back on the radar.

· Sticky Inflation Risks: Investors are braced for a "sticky" monthly reading, even if the annual rate shows a mild softening. If Core CPI remains elevated, expect a violent repricing of the 2026 rate path, further pushing back the timeline for the first cut of the year.

Tonight's CPI will serve as a critical check on whether the NFP momentum extended into January inflation, likely dictating the near-term trajectory for both the Dollar and U.S. equities.

Dollar Outlook: Testing the 97.00 Ceiling

The U.S. Dollar Index has successfully weathered its recent breakdown attempt, finding firm support near 96.80. The Greenback is currently in a technical tug-of-war—buoyed by rising yields but capped by a cautious market.

USD Index, H4 Chart

Technically, 97.00 remains the primary hurdle. A "hot" CPI print today would likely provide the explosive catalyst needed to clear this level and target 97.50. Conversely, 96.60 serves as the immediate safety net. If the index fails to regain 97.00, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Outlook: The Dollar is currently benefiting from post-NFP momentum. However, Trumps trade threats toward Canada, geopolitical friction regarding retaliatory tariffs, and long-term "dollar debasement" fears continue to dominate the background unless the CPI provides a fresh bullish catalyst.

Gold Outlook: The Fall of the $5,000 "Iron Gate"

The most significant technical event of the week has been Gold (XAUUSD) losing its psychological floor at $5,000. The narrative of "higher yields for longer" has finally caught up to the metal, triggering a liquidation of long positions.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

$5,000 has transitioned from firm support into a formidable resistance level. With safe-haven flows being siphoned by a higher-yielding Dollar, Gold faces the immediate risk of an extended range-bound trend, with immediate support at 4,900 and 4,800.

Outlook: Until Gold can decisively reclaim the $5,000 handle, any bounce should be viewed as a "technical correction" within a burgeoning bearish phase. Intraday trading continues to provide opportunities for short-term traders.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

On a broader timeframe, Gold remains capped below 5,000, and the range-bound trend is likely to extend until the next clear fundamental move.

Nasdaq Outlook: The Antitrust Headache

The Nasdaq 100 (UT100) is facing a "perfect storm" of negative catalysts. The index tumbled -1.8% yesterday as the high-interest-rate environment collided with sector-specific regulatory pressure.

· The Nvidia Factor: Reports of a fresh DOJ antitrust investigation into Nvidia‘s AI chip allocation have sent shockwaves through the tech sector. As the primary engine of the AI rally, any regulatory threat to Nvidia is a direct threat to the Nasdaq’s valuation.

· Technical Warning: The index is currently testing the 25,000 "line in the sand." A failure to hold this level today would confirm a regime shift, potentially opening a "technical void" toward the 23,900 support zone.

UT100, Daily Chart

The recent pressure near record highs suggests bullish momentum has faded. Last week's sell-off supports this view; despite a weak rebound, we are seeing another round of selling pressure pushing the index back toward 25,000.

This suggests a near-term technical correction is underway, especially as major tech stocks begin to show consistent selling pressure.

Technically, a bearish reversal pattern has formed, and a breakdown of the 25,000 support suggests bulls are losing their grip.

Today's Bottom Line

We are entering a period of high-stakes volatility. The combination of a hawkish Fed, trade-war rhetoric, and tech-sector investigations has created a "Risk-Off" environment that favors the Yen (and potentially the Dollar) over equities and precious metals. Today's CPI reading will set the tone for the market through next week.