DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 11, 2026

NFP Judgment Day: The Final Labor Reality CheckUSDJPY, Gold & Nasdaq100 Outlook

The global market stands at a critical crossroads. After a volatile start to February, the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report—finally arriving today following the government shutdown—is being hailed as the ultimate "Judgment Day" for the U.S. economic narrative. Following Tuesday's disappointing Retail Sales data, which showed stagnant 0.0% growth, the pressure on the labor market to demonstrate resilience has never been higher.

NFP Preview: Whats Next for the Dollar？

Typically, NFP is the "king of data," but this specific release carries double the weight. The market is currently caught between previous weak labor signals (ADP and Challenger Job Cuts) and the Fed's earlier narrative of a "resilient labor market."

Furthermore, "consumer fatigue" is a growing factor. Tuesday‘s Retail Sales miss (0.0% vs. 0.4% expected) suggests the U.S. consumer is exhausted. If today’s NFP also comes in weak (Consensus: 70K), the "growth risk" narrative will shift from a whisper to a roar.

Dollar Outlook

USD Index, H4 Chart

The Dollar Index is currently "gasping for air," struggling to regain the key 96.80 level. Our outlook for the dollar remains the same as we covered earlier this week.

With 97.00 – 96.80 remaining the key resistance zone to watch, a failure to regain this level would validate the bearish trend.

· Bearish Case: A print below 50K would likely be the nail in the coffin for the 97.00 handle, potentially sending the Dollar toward 96.00.

· Bullish Case: A surprise beat (above 100K) would provide a much-needed lifeline, allowing the Dollar to attempt a reclaim of the 97.00 psychological barrier.

USDJPY Outlook

USDJPY, Daily Chart

USDJPY also saw a break below 155 yesterday. With this breakdown of the 155 support zone, we are potentially confirming a bearish reversal in the USDJPY, especially as the Yen gains strength not only against the U.S. Dollar but across major currencies.

If this extends, USDJPY could potentially target the next low at 152.30, while further downside would see a clear opening toward the 150 area.

Impact on Gold: The Battle for the $5,100 Ceiling

Gold has shown remarkable grit, holding the $5,000 "Iron Gate" despite technical pullbacks. However, it is currently "stuck" in a tightening range, lacking the momentum to clear the $5,076 – $5,100 resistance zone.

Gold bulls are essentially praying for a weak NFP print. A soft labor report would drive Treasury yields lower and reignite the safe-haven trade, providing the explosive energy needed to clear $5,100.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

The near-term price action suggests that Gold is currently firmly supported at $5,000. If a strong NFP print breaks this floor, expect a deeper slide toward 4,800 – 4,850.

However, if a weak print on the NFP confirms the sluggish U.S. outlook, it could open the door for a fresh run toward the 5,240 level that we covered earlier.

Nasdaq 100: Walking the 25,000 Tightrope

The Nasdaq 100 (UT100) is currently the "weakest link" among the major indices. While the Dow Jones celebrates its 50,000-point milestone, tech stocks are feeling the heat of "Sector Rotation" and margin compression fears.

Disappointing retail data has hit "Consumer Tech" hard. The index is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are threatening to form a "Death Cross."

UT100, Daily Chart

The 25,000 Pivot is the line in the sand. If NFP provides a "Goldilocks" scenario (neither too hot nor too cold), the Nasdaq may find a floor here for sideways consolidation.

Conversely, a failure here at 25,000 triggers a technical "void," with the next major support not appearing until the 23,900 – 24,000 zone.

Outlook: We need to see a break below 25,000 to confirm any downside move for a technical correction, especially after a long period of consolidation between the 26,000 – 25,000 zone.

Bottom Line & What to Watch Today

Today is about one thing: Visibility. With the NFP delay finally over, the market will stop "blind flying" and commit to a direction for the rest of February.

· Key Release: NFP (Jan) at 8:30 AM ET. Watch for the revision of previous months, as that often moves the needle more than the headline number.

· Geopolitics: Keep an eye on the Canada-U.S. trade friction. Prime Minister Trudeaus emergency cabinet meeting regarding "retaliatory tariffs" could add unexpected volatility to industrial and supply-chain stocks.

· Fed Commentary: Watch Logan and Hammack. If they double down on the "Higher for Longer" rhetoric despite a weak NFP, expect a violent "Risk-Off" reaction.