DBG Markets: Market Report for Jan 21, 2026

"Greenland Tariff" Risks Ignite Broad Risk-Off； What‘s Next on Equities, Dollar & Precious Metals

The global financial markets are currently at the center of a storm. U.S. President Trump’s revival of the "Greenland Tariff" threat against European allies has acted as a geopolitical "Black Swan," shattering previous trade-truce expectations and triggering a massive sell-off in global risk assets.

Capital is exiting equities and the Dollar at an alarming rate, seeking refuge in traditional safe havens like Gold, Silver, and the Swiss Franc.

Global Equities: Sharpest Drop in Three Months as Risk Appetite Collapses

Wall Street suffered its largest single-day drop in nearly three months yesterday, with panic spreading rapidly across global exchanges. The S&P 500 plummeted 2.4%, the Nasdaq declined 2.1%, and the Dow Jones plunged 870 points.

As the direct targets of the tariff threats, European equities were hit hard. Investors increasingly fear that aggressive 10%–25% U.S. actions could fracture transatlantic supply chains and push Europe closer to recession.

US500, Daily Chart

For the S&P 500 outlook, the stance remains the same as previously covered: risk-off sentiment is likely to temper the upside. Any technical rebounds are expected to be fragile; trade-war uncertainty remains a heavy cap on upside potential.

Key Levels: Resistance remains at 6900, while near-term support lies under 6780.

US500, H4 Chart

Over the 4-hour timeframe chart, any rebound toward the 20/50-EMA is likely to provide a "sell-the-rally" opportunity, especially if the 20/50-EMA short-term moving averages maintain a bearish crossover setup.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Go "Parabolic"

As fiat currencies and stock markets falter, physical Gold and Silver are proving their allure as the "ultimate sanctuaries."

Gold Outlook

Gold broke decisively above $4,700 overnight and surged to a new record high of $4,800 during the Asian session today. With no historical resistance levels above, Gold has entered a "price discovery" vacuum.

XAU/USD, H4 Chart

Momentum remains strong for now, and there is no point in seeking shorts until a clear momentum shift or reversal emerges. For now, imminent support lies at 4800 to justify the intraday upside.

Meanwhile, the 4690–4630 zone remains the key area supporting the broad uptrend wave for gold. Overall, gold maintains a "buy the dip" outlook.

Silver Outlook

Silver outperformed even Gold, surging past $95.00 and now potentially eyeing the psychologically critical $100.00 milestone. Beyond safe-haven demand, Silver is being re-rated as a strategic industrial asset for 2026, though the current deterioration in market risk sentiment could temper the upside in the near term.

XAGUSD, H4 Chart

The outlook remains positive for now, with imminent support between 90.00–93.50. Unless silver fails to regain levels above this zone, the upside remains intact.

Intraday Outlook: Watch near-term price action between 90.00–93.50. A clear break below would signal a pullback move in silver; conversely, holding above would see silver extend further upside.

US Dollar: The Backlash of a Trade War "Double-Edged Sword"

Markets are realizing that aggressive tariffs could reignite domestic U.S. inflation while simultaneously dragging down economic growth. This "Stagflation" risk is driving capital out of the Greenback and into the Swiss Franc and other safe havens.

USD Index, H4 Chart

After collapsing from its 99.00 high to the 98.00 level, the short-to-medium-term trend for the Dollar has turned bearish.

The 98.40–98.50 area now serves as the primary resistance level and a critical line for "Sell the Rally" setups. On the other hand, if the U.S. Dollar fails to regain its position above the 4-hour 200-EMA, it would suggest the bearish trend remains valid, favoring a "short-the-rally" stance on any rebound.

Japanese Yen: Safe-Haven Inflows Ahead of BoJ？

The Yen is experiencing strong uncertainty. Traditionally, the Yen is seen as a safe haven; however, it has lacked significant gains recently. This is largely driven by a lack of market conviction regarding the BoJ and any attempts to defend the currency.

To put it simply, the market is "losing faith" in the BoJ after such a long period of inactivity.

Whether the Yen will benefit from a "double-tailwind" (safe-haven inflows and anticipation of a policy shift/intervention) depends largely on whether the BoJ delivers what the market wants tomorrow.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0.75% this week. However, Governor Uedas commentary regarding the inflationary risks of Yen weakness will be the centerpiece.

Market Impact: If the BoJ delivers a more hawkish-than-expected tone (hinting at a possible April hike), the Yen could see a massive further appreciation against the backdrop of global equity volatility.

USDJPY, H2 Chart

Technically, the 158.00 level remains the key level to watch, alongside the recent short-term downtrend channel formation.