Brent - Iran Says Hormuz Is Closed, the US Says Ships Are Moving

Brent trades around $78.8 today after rising more than 5% last week. The weekend brought the sharpest escalation in a month. The US hit more than 300 targets in Iran over three nights. Iran fired missiles at US-allied countries across the Gulf, including Qatar and the UAE, for the first time in months, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.

The strait matters because about a fifth of the world's oil passes through it. A real, lasting closure would be one of the biggest supply shocks in history.

So why is Brent near $79 and not above $100？ Three reasons. First, the closure is disputed: the US says its warships are guarding tankers through the strait, and some ships are still passing. Second, big buyers have adjusted, with Chinese refiners already switching to oil from Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE. Third, the market has seen this story before. Each time the conflict flared, shipping resumed within days, so traders now wait for proof of a lasting disruption before paying much higher prices.

Tomorrow adds another layer. The US releases its CPI inflation report, and rising oil prices feed directly into inflation. A hot number, plus expensive oil, would strengthen the case for a Fed rate hike. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress the same day.

Brent key levels:

• Resistance: 80, then 82

• Support: 77, then 72

Watching: tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, tomorrow's US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony, further strikes from either side.

By Born2trade market research department

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