Gold – Worst Quarter in Decades, and a Big Test Today

Gold is trading around $4,070 today, near its lowest level in eight months. The metal just finished its worst quarter in decades, losing 11% in three months. It comes down to rates: the Fed is talking about raising interest rates, and gold pays no interest. When rates go up, bonds and cash look more attractive than gold.

Today brings the next big test. The US jobs report comes out this morning, one day earlier than usual because US markets are closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday.

Economists expect about 114,000 new jobs, after a very strong 172,000 in May. Here's how to read it. A strong number means the economy does not need help, which supports more rate hikes and puts more pressure on gold. The $4,000 level could break. A weak number does the opposite: it cools the rate-hike talk and could give gold its first real bounce in weeks.

One more thing to remember. With US markets closed tomorrow, trading after the report may be thinner than usual, and that can make moves sharper in both directions.

Gold key levels:

• Resistance: $4,100, then $4,150

• Support: $4,000, then $3,930

Watching: today's US jobs report at 8:30 AM ET, Fed Chair Warsh's comments in Sintra, the US dollar.

By Born2trade market research department

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