U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Draft Emerges, Oil Slides, U.S. Equities Hold Near Record Highs

Market Overview

An Iranian media outlet revealed a proposed U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework, sending Brent crude down 5.65% and WTI lower by 3.7% in a single session. U.S. equities briefly turned negative after the White House denied the existence of any finalized agreement, though the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (+0.07%) still managed to close near record highs, while the Dow Jones gained 0.36%. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.48%, gold retreated, silver fell 1.8%, and the offshore yuan strengthened to 6.78 against the U.S. dollar, marking its strongest level in nearly three years.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Draft Triggers Sharp Oil Selloff

Iranian media disclosed details of a potential ceasefire framework between Washington and Tehran, reportedly involving partial U.S. troop withdrawals and the lifting of maritime restrictions. In return, Iran pledged to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz within one month. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington was willing to give negotiations “every opportunity to succeed.”

However, after the White House denied the existence of a finalized draft agreement, risk sentiment briefly deteriorated and major U.S. indices turned lower intraday before recovering into the close. Brent crude at one point plunged nearly 6% intraday before settling down 5.65% at $93.95 per barrel, while WTI crude closed 3.7% lower at $90.42.

China‘s Industrial Profits Surge 24.7% in April

China’s industrial enterprises above designated size posted an 18.2% year-over-year increase in profits during the January-April period, marking the strongest growth pace in 17 months, primarily driven by improving price dynamics. April profits alone rose 24.7%, while profits in high-tech manufacturing jumped 44.8%.

Upstream industries continued to outperform, with profits surging 62.2%, while midstream growth moderated and downstream sectors remained in negative territory, highlighting widening divergence across the industrial chain. Meanwhile, ChangXin Technology received approval for its IPO, targeting RMB 29.5 billion in fundraising, making it the second-largest STAR Market IPO to date.

AI Capital Spending Continues to Accelerate, TSMC Raises Prices

NVIDIAs annual spending in Taiwan has reportedly surged from approximately $10-15 billion four to five years ago to nearly $150 billion today, underscoring the explosive escalation in global AI infrastructure demand.

At the same time, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is expected to raise 3nm wafer pricing by 15% in the second half of the year amid fully utilized capacity, with another potential 10% increase possible next year.

Separately, Snowflake signed a $6 billion procurement agreement with AWS, driving its shares more than 30% higher in after-hours trading as cloud infrastructure demand continued to exceed expectations.

PDD Supply Chain Expansion and Kuaishous AI Transformation

PDD Holdings reported that transaction service revenue surpassed advertising revenue for the first time. First-quarter revenue increased 11%, while transaction services revenue climbed 20% to RMB 56.3 billion. Management emphasized ongoing internal restructuring efforts aimed at reshaping the company for the next decade of growth.

Meanwhile, Kuaishous Kling AI platform achieved an annualized recurring revenue (ARR) approaching $500 million, representing over 300% year-over-year growth. Core commercial revenue rose 10.7%, though profitability remained pressured by aggressive investment spending.

Key Events AheadPCE Inflation Data Takes Center Stage Tonight

The markets attention now turns to the release of U.S. Q1 real GDP data alongside April Core PCE inflation figures later today. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently described the policy outlook as “roughly balanced,” while remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are also scheduled.

A stronger-than-expected inflation print could reignite expectations for tighter short-end rate pricing, while softer data may help push 10-year Treasury yields lower and provide fresh upside momentum for equities.

Elevated Oil Volatility Likely to Persist

Markets continue to digest conflicting headlines surrounding the proposed U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework, the White House‘s denial, and Rubio’s ambiguous diplomatic remarks. Brent crude plunged 5.65% in a single session, while WTI lost 3.7%.

Traders will closely monitor whether any formal memorandum is eventually signed and whether Iran can realistically restore full Strait of Hormuz shipping access within the proposed timeline. In parallel, the market will also focus on upcoming EIA crude inventory data, with intraday oil volatility expected to remain elevated.