Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold Surges as Tariff Fears Rise, Oil Slips on Record Inventory B

During Thursdays Asian session (February 26, Beijing time), spot gold traded near $5,175 per ounce after rising strongly on Wednesday. The rally was driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid U.S. tariff measures fueling inflation concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of the third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations.

WTI crude traded near $65.65 per barrel in early Asian hours. Oil prices declined Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories surged far beyond expectations. However, ongoing Middle East tensions helped limit downside pressure.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Overview

Equity Markets

U.S. equities extended gains on Wednesday, led by technology stocks. All three major indices reached two-week highs:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.63%

• S&P 500: +0.81%

• Nasdaq Composite: +1.26%

The rally was largely supported by semiconductor stocks, as investor concerns over disruptive AI-related risks eased, improving overall market sentiment.

Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of $68.13 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. Shares rose approximately 3% in after-hours trading, lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 1.6% ahead of the earnings release. The previously weak S&P Software & Services sector also rebounded sharply by 2.9%.

On the downside, Lowes shares weighed on housing-related stocks due to a soft revenue outlook, while GoDaddy plunged 14.3%. Investors are closely watching upcoming earnings from Salesforce, Intuit, and Snowflake to assess market volatility risks.

Gold Market

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $5,202.28 per ounce on Wednesday. The move was primarily supported by:

• The U.S. imposing a 10% temporary tariff on global goods, with potential increases under consideration

• Heightened uncertainty ahead of the third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks

Other precious metals also rallied:

• Silver gained 3.9%, reaching a three-week high

• Platinum surged 7.1%, marking its highest level since January 29

According to Bank of America, although gold investment flows have slowed and seasonal weakness may emerge in spring, tariff-related uncertainty could shorten consolidation periods. The bank forecasts gold could exceed $6,000 within the next 12 months.

Oil Market

Oil prices showed mixed performance Wednesday:

• Brent crude rose slightly to settle at $70.85 per barrel

• WTI crude fell to settle at $65.42 per barrel

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude inventories jumped by 16 million barrels last week, significantly above the expected 1.5 million barrel increase. The surge was attributed to lower refinery utilization and higher imports.

However, escalating U.S. military deployments in the Middle East to pressure Iran have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, limiting the bearish impact of inventory data.

Meanwhile:

• Saudi Arabia has initiated short-term export increases to offset potential supply risks

• OPEC+ major producers are considering a modest output increase in April

• Markets are closely monitoring the Geneva U.S.–Iran talks and the March 1 OPEC+ meeting

Foreign Exchange Market

The Japanese yen weakened to a two-week low of 156.44 per dollar after Japan appointed two pro-reflation academics to the central bank policy board. This move heightened concerns that the pace of rate hikes may slow. Reports suggesting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi holds reservations about further tightening also pressured the yen.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 97.69 as markets assessed the impact of new tariff policies following a Supreme Court ruling overturning an emergency tariff measure.

The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1806, as traders weighed U.S. trade policy uncertainty alongside Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate outlooks. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at least through June, while the ECB may hold rates steady throughout 2026.

The Australian dollar gained 0.96% to $0.7123 after stronger-than-expected domestic inflation data, with investors also monitoring developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations.