DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 9, 2026

Takaichi‘s Win & the Looming Data "Double-Header"US Dollar, Yen, Gold & Nasdaq-100 Outlook

While Friday saw a technical recovery in global markets, the narrative is shifting from last week’s "V-shaped" bounce to a more cautious "wait-and-see" approach. The market is currently balancing a decisive election outcome in Japan against a heavy US economic calendar that could easily reignite volatility.

Japan Election: Takaichi‘s Supermajority & The JPY "Handcuffs"

The Japanese political landscape has been redrawn. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the LDP-led coalition secured a crushing supermajority (310+ seats) in Sunday’s general election.

This "absolute majority" gives Takaichi a clear green light for her aggressive reflationary agenda. Markets view this as Abenomics 2.0—prioritizing growth and fiscal spending over immediate monetary tightening.

Theoretically, this victory puts the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a difficult position; Takaichis pro-growth stance makes it harder for the BoJ to hike rates aggressively without political friction.

USDJPY Outlook

While the JPY weakened initially (sending the Nikkei above 58,000), the risk of verbal and physical intervention remains high. Officials have already started sounding the alarm. If USDJPY pushes too close to the 160.00 "danger zone," expect the Ministry of Finance to step in.

Despite Takaichis win being fundamentally "yen-bearish," price action this morning showed a quick recovery after an initial slide, suggesting a "sell-the-news" flow and caution regarding intervention.

USDJPY, H4 Chart

· Pivot Level: 157.00 remains the key pivot. If price regains 157.00, the upside likely continues toward the 158.00 – 159.00 level.

· Downside Risk: If the pair fails to hold above 157.00 today, it suggests Yen bears may not extend their run much longer as intervention fears dominate.

US Dollar Index: Navigating the Delayed "Data Bomb"

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently catching its breath near 97.40. The market is caught between a softening Fed tone and mixed economic data, creating a period of uncertain consolidation ahead of mid-week releases.

· Delayed NFP (Wednesday, Feb 11): The 5-day delay due to the shutdown has created a "volatility vacuum." Any massive surprise here will hit the market with double the force.

· January CPI (Friday, Feb 13): Following the NFP, CPI will determine if the Feds "Hawkish Hold" is justified or if inflation remains "sticky" enough to prevent any easing.

Dollar Outlook

USD Index, H4 Chart

In the near-term, expect the Dollar to remain range-bound between 97.00 and 97.80. The "recession" versus "soft landing" debate is far from settled, and Wednesday's NFP print will be the first major reality check for the Greenback.

Gold Outlook: The $5,000 "Iron Gate"

Gold has shown resilience, clawing its way back from the $4,700 depths to sit right on the $5,000 psychological pivot.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

The $5,000 level is the critical dividing line. While bulls have shown strength, the move currently lacks the conviction of a fresh breakout.

If Gold fails to establish a firm daily close above $5,010, we are likely looking at a prolonged consolidation phase. The range of $4,700 – $5,000 will likely define trading for the near-term as the market recalibrates for its next move.

Conversely, we need to see a clear close or move above 5,000 to trigger another leg up toward the next zone above 5,100 (targeting 5,240).

Nasdaq100: Vulnerable After the "V-Bounce"

Despite the sharp recovery last week, the Nasdaq 100 remains in a precarious position. The "V-shape" has brought the UT100 back to the 25,000 level, but this bounce may be a "dead cat" rather than a true reversal.

While Nvidias comments provided temporary relief, the broader sector is still grappling with massive capex spending and margin concerns. The 25,000 level is now acting as a major resistance-turned-pivot.

UT100, Daily Chart

Failure to decisively reclaim and hold the 25,000 handle suggests that the sharp pullback may not be over. Investors are cautious, and any disappointing labor data on Wednesday could quickly reverse recent gains.

Next Move: A close below 25,000 would signal that the bearish momentum from last week is still in play, with support sitting lower at 23,900.

Bottom Line for the Week

The market is currently in a "data vacuum" before the double-header of NFP and CPI. While the Japan election provided a spark, the global narrative remains clouded by US fiscal and labor uncertainties.

· Dollar: Watch 97.50; its the pivot for a deeper DXY pullback or a fresh rally toward 98.00.

· Nasdaq: Treat the 25,000 level with extreme caution. The trend is fragile, and the "AI euphoria" is facing its first real fundamental test.

· JPY: Watch for "Sell the Fact" flows. Now that the election is over, traders might take profits on short-JPY positions, leading to a temporary USDJPY dip regardless of BoJ policy.