Geopolitical Risk Radar: Russia Nuclear Treaty Expiry Looms; Iran Weighs Diplomacy

Global risk sentiment faces renewed headwinds as geopolitical friction intensifies between Moscow and the West. The potential lapse of critical nuclear treaties acts as a primary catalyst for market volatility.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a stern warning regarding the impending expiration of the last remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty, stating that its lapse risks severe escalation. This development acts as a catalyst for “Risk-Off” flows, potentially buoying safe havens like the USD and Gold (XAU).

Diplomatic Tensions rising

The diplomatic rift continues to widen across Europe. Germany has arrested five individuals accused of supplying Russian defense firms, signaling a crackdown on sanctions evasion. Simultaneously, the UK has revoked the credentials of a Russian diplomat, further entrenching the diplomatic freeze.

Middle East Updates

In a contrasting geopolitical theater, Iran is reportedly weighing a restart of nuclear diplomacy. While Tehran has rejected specific US demands, the willingness to engage via envoys suggests a potential thaw could be on the horizon. For oil markets (WTI/Brent), any progress here is critical.

Data Snapshot

• Asset Focus: USD and XAU showing safe-haven strength.
• Energy: WTI and Brent tracking Iranian diplomatic developments.
• Key Drivers: US-Russia nuclear treaty expiration and Fed sentiment environment.