Precious Metals Rally Amid Easing Bets and Geopolitical Risk

Key Takeaways:

• Gold and silver continue to rally on expectations of Fed easing, elevated geopolitical tensions, keeping both metals in strong demand.

• Tensions in the Iran, U.S.–Venezuela developments, and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy have further bolstered safe‑haven flows into bullion.

• Soft NFP amid still‑resilient wage growth has strengthened market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, supporting lower real yields and demand for gold and silver.

Market Summary:

Precious metals remain the primary beneficiaries of the current macro environment, with gold and silver rallying amid monetary easing expectations, escalating geopolitical risks, abundant liquidity, and rising institutional uncertainty in the U.S. Gold has surged above $4,550–$4,600, while silver has outperformed, reaching multi-year or record highs in some markets.

Soft NFP has reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026. Slower job creation, despite firm wage growth, has lowered real-rate expectations, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and supporting precious metals.

Geopolitical tensions including Iran unrest, U.S.–Venezuela friction, and potential military actions have bolstered safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, driven by the Supreme Courts pending tariff ruling, has heightened demand for hedges against policy shocks and global growth disruptions.

Liquidity remains supportive. President Trump‘s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage bonds, persistent central-bank gold buying, continued accumulation by China’s PBOC, and strong ETF inflows reinforce structural demand for both metals.

Silvers rally has been amplified by industrial demand, especially in energy transition and technology supply chains, allowing it to outperform gold while remaining sensitive to growth expectations. ETF participation and supply constraints have further strengthened momentum.

Silver is more volatile than gold, reacting to shifts in risk sentiment, dollar strength, and equity markets. A stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI print could trigger short-term profit-taking, but with elevated geopolitical risks, loose liquidity, and ongoing policy uncertainty, the fundamental bias for both metals remains upside-focused, with dips seen as buying opportunities rather than reversals.

Technical Analysis

GOLD, H4:

Gold has reinforced its medium-term bullish structure, following a decisive upside breakout from its prior consolidation range. Price has now pushed firmly above the 4,495 resistance zone, reclaiming the upper Fibonacci band and signaling renewed bullish momentum after several weeks of range-bound trade.

From a Fibonacci perspective, gold is now trading above the 1.0 retracement near 4,425, with price pressing toward the 1.272 extension around 4,545, which represents the next major upside objective. A sustained hold above 4,500 would strengthen the case for further extension toward this upper resistance band, where profit-taking pressure may emerge.

Momentum indicators confirm the bullish bias. The RSI has surged into the upper-70s, reflecting strong upside momentum and aggressive buying interest. While MACD has flipped decisively positive, with expanding histogram bars and a bullish crossover, reinforcing the continuation signal.

Resistance Levels: 4640.00, 4670.00

Support Levels: 4495.00, 4545.00

SILVER, H4:

Silver has delivered a decisive bullish breakout, clearing its previous all-time high resistance around the 81.5 region. This move marks a major structural shift, transitioning price from a prolonged consolidation phase into price discovery, where historical resistance is no longer present above current levels.

From a market structure perspective, silver continues to print higher highs and higher lows, firmly respecting a rising trendline that has underpinned the uptrend since early December. Notably, recent pullbacks were shallow and consistently found support along this ascending trendline, reinforcing strong dip-buying behavior and confirming trend strength.

The breakout above prior ATHs also completes a bullish continuation pattern, following a sequence of corrective swings that successfully held above former resistance levels near 74.9 and 69.25, both of which now act as key medium-term supports. As long as price remains above the former breakout zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

Momentum indicators strongly support the upside bias. The RSI has surged into the low-70s, reflecting robust bullish momentum and confirming the breakout strength. While the MACD has turned decisively positive, with expanding histogram bars and a fresh bullish crossover, suggesting momentum is still building rather than fading.

Resistance Levels: 83.60, 85.00

Support Levels: 81.50, 74.90