DBG Markets: Market Report for Jan 6, 2026

Venezuela “Political Game” & Wall Streets Major Rotation; Outlook for Oil, Gold, Nas100 & USDCNH

The first full trading week of 2026 is witnessing a profound shift in market logic. As institutional players return to their desks, the narrative has evolved from year-end consolidation into a complex interplay of military geopolitics and a historic sector rotation on Wall Street.

Oil Market: From Production Concerns to Political Chess

The energy sectors logic has undergone a structural transformation. The Venezuela crisis is no longer just about potential supply increases—it has become a high-stakes “Political Game.”

Following the capture of Venezuela‘s president and the U.S. taking temporary control of the country, Washington has issued three key requests, This implies a forced, potentially messy reorganization of global heavy oil logistics. In the short term, this creates supply friction rather than a smooth global supply increase.

Support Base: Geopolitical “risk premiums” are effectively shielding oil prices from demand-side concerns. WTI has established a solid “political base” between $57.50 and $58.00.

USOIL & UKOIL Technical Outlook

Currently finding base at 56.30–57.30, suggesting buyers are holding. While the broader trend remains bearish to consolidation, the recent macro-outlook and price action indicate a favorable risk premium for oil.

USOIL, H4 Chart

Technically, 57.30 support holds. A breakout above the recent resistance channel near 58.00 could open the upside toward 60.00.

UKOIL, H4 Chart

Meanwhile for the UKOIL (Brent), support forms in the 60.0–61.20 area, with upside now eyeing 64.00 if broken.

Catalyst: All eyes are on tonights API inventory data. An unexpected draw could push WTI toward the $59 psychological barrier and potentially test $60, while Brent could challenge $64.

US Equity Market: The DJIA Record & Tech "Fatigue"

Wall Street is defined by an aggressive sector rotation. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq struggles with valuation gravity, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recently briefly touched 49,100—a fresh all-time record.

The record-breaking Dow run is drawing liquidity away from Nasdaq and S&P 500. Investors are rotating into "Real Economy" sectors—Financials (Goldman Sachs), Energy (Chevron), and Industrials (Caterpillar)—seen as primary beneficiaries of the new 2026 policy landscape.

NAS100, Daily Chart

he Nasdaq100 outlook remains clouded if capital continues to rotate into defensive sectors. This may keep NAS100 under pressure. Until a major macro catalyst, like Friday's NFP, arrives, tech may continue underperforming its blue-chip peers.

Technically, Nasdaq remains contained within a converging range. A break below 25,000 or the converging triangle would likely trigger a significant pullback or corrective move.

Outlook: Sector rotation suggests cyclical tech may face downside pressure or upside challenge.

Daily Asset Outlook: Gold & USD/CNH

On the other hand, the recent asset price that captured market attention is gold and the dollar/CNH move, which may pose near-term volatility and trading opportunities.

Gold (XAU/USD): Testing the $4,500 Frontier

Gold is currently the big winner of the "flight-to-safety" trade following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela.

XAU/USD, H1 Chart

After testing the 4,400 support base and breaking the 4,450 resistance, bulls appear to be in major control, keeping gold intact for another day of rally.

For now, if 4,450 holds, bulls may challenge the next level of 4,500. Simply put, unless 4,450 fails to hold, gold maintains a bullish intraday outlook.

USD/CNH (Offshore Yuan): The "7.00" Battleground

The Yuan is starting 2026 with strength, having recently dipped below the critical 7.00 threshold. This is firmly bearish for USD/CNH (bullish for CNH). USD/CNH is currently consolidating near its strongest levels since May 2023 (6.97–6.98).

USD/CNH, H4 Chart

7.00 has now flipped from support to pivot resistance. As long as it stays below this level, the path toward 6.95 remains open. A bounce above 7.00 would suggest a temporary correction before the next leg lower.

For traders, the 7.00–6.97 range remains key for USD/CNH, potentially leading to near-term consolidation and rebound opportunities if this zone holds.

Bottom Line

The first week of 2026 highlights how geopolitical events and structural rotations are reshaping market dynamics. Venezuelas political upheaval and U.S. intervention continue to underpin oil and gold, creating elevated risk premiums and supporting bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, Wall Street sees a historic sector rotation, with capital moving from tech-heavy Nasdaq to real economy sectors like Financials, Energy, and Industrials. USD/CNH remains sensitive around the critical 7.00 level, with the offshore Yuan showing early-year strength.