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Abstract：Monthly Forex Seasonality - April 2021: Bulls on Parade, Trampling USD
APRIL FX SEASONALITY OVERVIEW:
By some measures, April has been either the best or second best month of the year for EUR/USDand GBP/USD rates, as well as the S&P 500.
April showers？ ‘Terror rains’ down on the greenback: over the past 10-years, April has been the worst month of the year for the US Dollar (via the DXY Index), averaging a loss of -1.09%.
Gold prices have been performing well in April, with gains averaging +2.39% over the past 5-years and +1.4% over the past 10-years.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For April, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in during the coronavirus pandemic recovery.
MONTHLY FOREX SEASONALITY SUMMARY – APRIL 2021
FOREX SEASONALITY IN EURO (VIA EUR/USD)
April is a bullish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a meager gain of +0.04%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best month of the year, however, averaging a gain of +1.2%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN BRITISH POUND (VIA GBP/USD)
April is a very bullish month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the third best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.91%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best worst month of the year, averaging a gain of +1.72%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN JAPANESE YEN (VIA USD/JPY)
April is a bearish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.45%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.64%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (VIA AUD/USD)
April is a bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.21%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second best month of the year, averaging a gain +1.18%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (VIA NZD/USD)
April is a mixed month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.57%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.72%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN CANADIAN DOLLAR (VIA USD/CAD)
April is a very bearish month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.38%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -1.23%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN SWISS FRANC (VIA USD/CHF)
April is a mixed month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +1.15%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.63%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN US S&P 500
April is a very bullish month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the index, averaging a gain of +3.61%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second best month of the year, averaging a gain of 2.34%.
FOREX SEASONALITY IN GOLD (VIA XAU/USD)
April is a very bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of +2.39%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best of the year, averaging a gain of +1.4%.
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Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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